COMPUTATIONAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN FEDERAL POLYTECHNIC, MUBI, ADAMAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly within dense institutional communities such as tertiary institutions. In this conference paper, we present a computational model (SEIR-SI) to analyze the transmission dynamics of malaria among students of Federal Polytechnic, Mubi, Adamawa State Nigeria. The model incorporates human and mosquito populations, factoring in the unique demographic mixing, student hostel conditions, and localized environmental factors of the Mubi region with seasonal rainfall. We derive the basic reproduction number (R₀) using the next-generation matrix method and evaluate the stability of both the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Numerical simulations in HTML 5 are performed using data obtained from the institution's clinic. The results indicate that the current institutional reproduction number stands at R₀ ≈ 1.84, indicating sustained endemicity. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the mosquito biting rate and the usage rate of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the most critical parameters influencing transmission. Discussion focuses on targeted institutional interventions, including rapid test screening for students resuming school every session, mandatory hostel fumigation, usage of treated net, and improved drainage infrastructure to mitigate malaria burden in Federal Polytechnic Mubi Adamawa State Nigeria.